Unpacking science behind 2025-26 fire season

As BNHRC research moves further into its delivery phase, expert commentary is helping connect bushfire science with real-world preparedness, response and land management.

Image: Unsplash / Andrew Tom

In December 2025, bushfires burned in NSW, Tasmania and Western Australia, while from January 2026 we saw fires extend into Victoria and South Australia. This difficult season tragically resulted in five deaths, more than 900 structures destroyed and hundreds of thousands of hectares burned.

Now moving further into the delivery phase, BNHRC research aims to strengthen State-wide preparedness and help reduce the risk of further damage and loss of life from natural hazards.

As BNHRC scientists begin to publish results over 2026-27, research outputs should help equip emergency management systems to more accurately predict and analyse bushfire behaviour.

While project findings continue to mature, public-facing expert commentary is another way BNHRC research is informing preparedness. See below some for some of the expert analysis on the 2025-26 bushfire season, as published in The Conversation.

Where will the next megafire break out? Climate change is making it tougher to predict

In this article, published in January 2026, BNHRC Director A/Prof Rachael Nolan (Western Sydney University) and Prof Trent Penman (The University of Melbourne) explain how climate change is making it more difficult to calculate when and how the specific drivers behind bushfires will result in a severe event.

There are also many other factors making it more challenging to predict severe bushfire seasons, including disruption to Indigenous caring for Country practices such as cultural burning, weed invasion, and population expansion.

A/Prof Nolan and Prof Penman argue that an interdisciplinary approach is vital to designing better research. When government agency representatives are embedded within the research process itself, findings can be more easily applied to fire management.

Learn more about A/Prof Rachael Nolan’s BNHRC research here, and Prof Penman’s here.

When bushfires make their own weather

This article, authored by Prof Jason Sharples from UNSW, with collaborators from University of Melbourne, breaks down how exactly a fire-generated thunderstorm (pyrocumulonimbus or ‘PyroCB’) forms – a phenomenon that was observed during the 2025-26 fire season.

These storms are becoming more common and require in-depth ongoing analysis so that emergency responders and communities can be well-prepared.

For example, targeted research incorporating satellite monitoring and advanced atmospheric modelling is now being used to better understand and detect conditions favourable for pyrocumulonimbus formation. This knowledge allows for better warnings, resource allocation, and strategies to protect lives and property.

Learn more about BNHRC Node Leader Prof Jason Sharples’ research here.

Primed to burn: what’s behind the intense, sudden fires burning across New South Wales and Tasmania?

In December, A/Prof Rachael Nolan, Prof Rachael Gallagher and Dr Chris Gordon (all Western Sydney University) discussed the influence of weather, fuel moisture and community exposure to fire-prone areas.

“These intense fires and dry conditions mean we should be careful this fire season – especially in drought-affected eastern NSW,” they wrote.